This commit is contained in:
26
src/lib/derby/generic.test.ts
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26
src/lib/derby/generic.test.ts
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import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest';
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import { defaultsFor, gPredict } from './generic';
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import { placings } from './model';
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import { races } from './races';
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describe('generic race model', () => {
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for (const race of races) {
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it(`${race.slug}: probabilities sum to one and placings are consistent`, () => {
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const preds = gPredict(race.runners, defaultsFor(race));
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expect(preds.reduce((a, r) => a + r.p, 0)).toBeCloseTo(1, 9);
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expect(preds.length).toBe(race.runners.length);
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const { top, trio } = placings(preds, 0.8);
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expect(top.reduce((a, t) => a + t.win, 0)).toBeCloseTo(1, 9);
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expect(trio.reduce((a, t) => a + t.p, 0)).toBeCloseTo(1, 9);
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for (const r of preds) expect(Number.isFinite(r.logit)).toBe(true);
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});
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}
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it('debutants get the field average and a higher fail risk', () => {
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const race = races.find((r) => r.slug === 'south-holland')!;
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const preds = gPredict(race.runners, defaultsFor(race));
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const deb = preds.find((r) => r.horse.n === 1)!;
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expect(deb.features.estimated).toEqual(['form', 'speed', 'level']);
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expect(deb.features.pFail).toBeCloseTo(0.12);
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});
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});
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132
src/lib/derby/generic.ts
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132
src/lib/derby/generic.ts
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@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
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// Algemeen kansmodel voor de overige koersen: zelfde opzet als het Derby-model
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// (z-scores × gewichten → softmax), maar zonder proef- en marktsignaal.
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// Signalen: uitslagen, snelheid (beste recente km-tijd), niveau (prijzengeld
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// van de laatste starts), startpositie en uitvalrisico.
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import type { Result } from './data';
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import type { Race, Runner } from './races';
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export type GWeights = {
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form: number;
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speed: number;
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level: number;
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draw: number;
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risk: number;
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halfLife: number;
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temperature: number;
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lambda: number;
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};
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export const gFeatureKeys = ['form', 'speed', 'level', 'draw'] as const;
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export type GFeatureKey = (typeof gFeatureKeys)[number];
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export const gDefaults: GWeights = {
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form: 1,
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speed: 1,
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level: 0.6,
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draw: 0.4,
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risk: 1,
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halfLife: 2,
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temperature: 1,
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lambda: 0.8
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};
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/** rensport: geen tijden, startbox minder belangrijk over 1900 m */
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export const defaultsFor = (race: Race): GWeights =>
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race.discipline === 'ren' ? { ...gDefaults, speed: 0, draw: 0.2, level: 0.8 } : { ...gDefaults };
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export const gPresets: Record<string, Partial<GWeights>> = {
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Standaard: {},
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Vorm: { form: 1.6, speed: 0.5, level: 0.4 },
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Snelheid: { form: 0.5, speed: 1.6, level: 0.4 },
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Niveau: { form: 0.6, speed: 0.6, level: 1.5 }
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};
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const SCALE = 0.55;
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const POSITION_POINTS: Record<number, number> = { 1: 1, 2: 0.75, 3: 0.6, 4: 0.45, 5: 0.35, 6: 0.25 };
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const positionPoints = (r: Result) => (r === 'D' ? 0 : (POSITION_POINTS[r] ?? 0.1));
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const DRAW_SCORE = [0, 0.6, 0.7, 0.6, 0.45, 0.4, 0.25, 0.1, 0, -0.2, -0.3];
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export type GFeatures = {
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form: number;
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speed: number;
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level: number;
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draw: number;
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pFail: number;
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/** welke signalen ontbraken en het veldgemiddelde kregen */
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estimated: GFeatureKey[];
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};
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const mean = (xs: number[]) => xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length;
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function rawForm(h: Runner, w: GWeights): number | null {
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if (h.form.length === 0) return null;
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const decay = h.form.map((_, i) => Math.pow(0.5, i / w.halfLife));
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return h.form.reduce((s: number, r, i) => s + decay[i] * positionPoints(r), 0) / decay.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
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}
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export function gFeatures(runners: Runner[], w: GWeights): GFeatures[] {
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const raw = runners.map((h) => ({
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form: rawForm(h, w),
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speed: h.times.length ? -Math.min(...h.times) : null,
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level: h.purses.length ? mean(h.purses.map((p) => Math.log(p))) : null
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}));
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const fill = (k: 'form' | 'speed' | 'level') => {
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const known = raw.map((r) => r[k]).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
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return known.length ? mean(known) : 0;
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};
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const avg = { form: fill('form'), speed: fill('speed'), level: fill('level') };
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return runners.map((h, i) => {
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const estimated: GFeatureKey[] = [];
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const pick = (k: 'form' | 'speed' | 'level') => {
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const v = raw[i][k];
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if (v === null) estimated.push(k);
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return v ?? avg[k];
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};
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const disq = h.form.filter((r) => r === 'D').length;
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const poor = h.form.filter((r) => r !== 'D' && r >= 7).length;
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// debutanten: geen bewijs dat ze in de draf blijven
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const base = h.form.length === 0 ? 0.12 : 0.03;
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const pFail = Math.min(0.5, base + 0.1 * disq + 0.03 * poor);
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return { form: pick('form'), speed: pick('speed'), level: pick('level'), draw: DRAW_SCORE[h.n] ?? 0, pFail, estimated };
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});
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}
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/**
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* ondergrens voor de spreiding per signaal, anders wordt 0,2 s verschil in een
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* veld met drie bijna gelijke tijden een enorme z-score
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*/
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const SD_FLOOR: Record<GFeatureKey, number> = { form: 0.08, speed: 1, level: 0.3, draw: 0.15 };
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function zscores(values: number[], floor: number): number[] {
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const m = mean(values);
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const sd = Math.max(floor, Math.sqrt(mean(values.map((v) => (v - m) ** 2))));
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return values.map((v) => (v - m) / sd);
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}
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export type GPrediction = {
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horse: Runner;
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features: GFeatures;
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contributions: Record<GFeatureKey, number>;
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riskPenalty: number;
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logit: number;
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p: number;
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};
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export function gPredict(runners: Runner[], w: GWeights): GPrediction[] {
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if (runners.length === 0) return [];
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const feats = gFeatures(runners, w);
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const z = Object.fromEntries(gFeatureKeys.map((k) => [k, zscores(feats.map((f) => f[k]), SD_FLOOR[k])])) as Record<GFeatureKey, number[]>;
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const rows = runners.map((horse, i) => {
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const contributions = Object.fromEntries(gFeatureKeys.map((k) => [k, w[k] * z[k][i] * SCALE])) as Record<GFeatureKey, number>;
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const riskPenalty = w.risk * Math.log(1 - feats[i].pFail);
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const logit = Object.values(contributions).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) + riskPenalty;
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return { horse, features: feats[i], contributions, riskPenalty, logit, p: 0 };
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});
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const max = Math.max(...rows.map((r) => r.logit));
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const exp = rows.map((r) => Math.exp((r.logit - max) / w.temperature));
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const total = exp.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
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rows.forEach((r, i) => (r.p = exp[i] / total));
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return rows.sort((a, b) => b.p - a.p);
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}
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@@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ export type Placings = {
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* Stern-demping: voor de 2e en 3e plaats wordt p^lambda gebruikt, wat de
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* neiging van pure PL corrigeert om de favoriet te vaak tweede te laten worden.
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*/
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export function placings(preds: Prediction[], lambda: number): Placings {
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export function placings(preds: { p: number }[], lambda: number): Placings {
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const n = preds.length;
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const p1 = preds.map((r) => r.p);
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const p2 = p1.map((p) => Math.pow(p, lambda));
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128
src/lib/derby/races.ts
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128
src/lib/derby/races.ts
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// Duindigt · zondag 20 september 2026 · koersen 3, 4 en 5
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// Bron: ZEturf koerskaarten en paardenfiches (laatste starts, kilometertijden, prijzengeld).
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import type { Result } from './data';
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export type Runner = {
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n: number;
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name: string;
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driver: string;
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trainer: string;
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sex: 'M' | 'H' | 'R';
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age: number;
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/** laatste vijf uitslagen, nieuwste eerst; D = gediskwalificeerd/gevallen; leeg = debutant */
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form: Result[];
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/** kilometertijden (s) van de laatste starts, nieuwste eerst; alleen bekende */
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times: number[];
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/** prijzengeld (€) van de laatste starts, nieuwste eerst: niveau waarop het paard uitkomt */
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purses: number[];
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/** beste kilometertijd ooit, null = onbekend */
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record: number | null;
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/** gedragen gewicht (alleen rensport) */
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kg?: number;
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note?: string;
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};
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export type Race = {
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slug: string;
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number: number;
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name: string;
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short: string;
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time: string;
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distance: number;
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start: string;
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purse: number;
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surface: string;
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discipline: 'draf' | 'ren';
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conditions: string;
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/** voorbeschouwing ZEturf (Kees Nakoersen) */
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preview: string;
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tips: number[];
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runners: Runner[];
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sources: { label: string; href: string }[];
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};
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const t = (m: number, s: number) => m * 60 + s;
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const ze = (c: number, slug: string) => `https://www.zeturf.be/nl/course-du-jour/2026-09-20/R14C${c}-duindigt-${slug}`;
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export const races: Race[] = [
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{
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slug: 'sheikh-mansour',
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number: 3,
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name: 'HH Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Prijs',
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short: 'Sheikh Mansour Prijs',
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time: '16:10',
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distance: 1900,
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start: 'Startboxen',
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purse: 10000,
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surface: 'Grasbaan · standaard',
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discipline: 'ren',
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conditions: 'Ren voor Arabische volbloeds, 4 jaar en ouder',
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preview:
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'Tex D.A. (3) kan mogelijk op herhaling op deze baan waar hij op 26 juli sterk won voor tweede Ektor D.A. (6) en met als vierde Orszana JR (5). Maar de ruin treft in El Zarka D.A. (1) en Farida P (2) twee sterke tegenstanders. Beide bleven weliswaar op iets meer dan 8 lengte op deze baan ongeplaatst, maar dat was tegen de top van Europa. Princess T (4) versloeg Tex D.A. met een neusje verschil op de grasbaan van Joure, dus ook deze merrie moeten we serieus nemen. Een koers waarin veel mogelijk is.',
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tips: [3, 1, 2, 6],
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sources: [{ label: 'ZEturf koerskaart', href: ze(3, 'hh-sheikh-mansour-bin-zayed-al-nahyan-prijs') }],
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runners: [
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{ n: 1, name: 'El Zarka D.A.', driver: 'Jurico Bogaerts', trainer: 'Johan Verstrepen', sex: 'R', age: 12, form: [7, 9, 5, 5, 3], times: [], purses: [250000, 100000, 26400, 92764, 6000], record: null, kg: 64, note: 'loopt tegen de Europese top' },
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{ n: 2, name: 'Farida P', driver: 'Anne Engels', trainer: 'Peter Deckers', sex: 'M', age: 7, form: ['D', 10, 3, 3, 1], times: [], purses: [250000, 100000, 26400, 92764, 6000], record: null, kg: 62, note: 'D = gevallen in Waregem' },
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{ n: 3, name: 'Tex D.A.', driver: 'Luca van Toor', trainer: 'Bianca Dunk', sex: 'R', age: 9, form: [10, 1, 2, 2, 2], times: [], purses: [250000, 5000, 4000, 6000, 6000], record: null, kg: 61, note: 'won 26 juli op Duindigt' },
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{ n: 4, name: 'Princess T', driver: 'Mirko Sanna', trainer: 'Gerard Zoetelief', sex: 'M', age: 6, form: [1, 4, 3, 5, 4], times: [], purses: [4000, 6000, 4000, 6000, 6000], record: null, kg: 57, note: 'versloeg Tex D.A. in Joure' },
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{ n: 5, name: 'Orszana JR', driver: 'Josephine Bruning', trainer: "Manouk van 't Slot", sex: 'M', age: 8, form: [4, 4, 4, 7], times: [], purses: [5000, 4000, 4200, 5100], record: null, kg: 56 },
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{ n: 6, name: 'Ektor D.A.', driver: 'Siem Bos', trainer: 'Johan Verstrepen', sex: 'H', age: 4, form: [3, 2, 5, 3, 7], times: [], purses: [6000, 5000, 6000, 6000, 7000], record: null, kg: 55 }
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]
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},
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{
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slug: 'schieweg',
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number: 4,
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name: 'Handelsonderneming Schieweg B.V. Prijs',
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short: 'Schieweg Prijs',
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time: '16:40',
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distance: 2000,
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start: 'Autostart',
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purse: 4750,
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surface: 'Sintelbaan · goed',
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discipline: 'draf',
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conditions: 'Draverij voor 4 jaar en ouder, winsom lager dan € 18.000',
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preview:
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'Paradepaard van Duindigt 2025 Louis Vuiton (7) wordt na deze koers gehuldigd, maar of dat als winnaar is staat niet vast. Pasion d’Oro (4) is waarschijnlijk het te kloppen paard: de hengst van Jacky Mollema verkeert in topvorm. Michel D (6) is eveneens in grote vorm, won tweemaal in Duitsland maar nog niet op Duindigt, al zat hij daar steeds dichtbij. Nobell Starro (5) werd in zijn laatste koers vierde op één lijn met tweede aankomende Louis Vuiton. Nolana Boko (8) won dit jaar al driemaal, laatst in Alkmaar. Otini Bianco (2) is hoogstwaarschijnlijk het Paradepaard van Duindigt 2026; met een juiste koers is de ruin er vandaag ook bij.',
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tips: [4, 7, 6, 5],
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sources: [{ label: 'ZEturf koerskaart', href: ze(4, 'handelsonderneming-schieweg-b-v-prijs') }],
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runners: [
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{ n: 1, name: 'Puck Ballaco', driver: 'Micha Brouwer', trainer: 'Rob de Vlieger', sex: 'M', age: 4, form: [4, 4, 1, 4, 3], times: [t(1, 17.9), t(1, 16.3), t(1, 16.6), t(1, 16.5), t(1, 17.8)], purses: [2750, 4000, 4000, 4400, 1100], record: t(1, 13.0) },
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{ n: 2, name: 'Otini Bianco', driver: 'Rob de Vlieger', trainer: 'Rob de Vlieger', sex: 'R', age: 5, form: ['D', 6, 1, 2, 'D'], times: [t(1, 15.5), t(1, 15.9), t(1, 16.4)], purses: [2750, 4400, 2750, 2750, 2750], record: t(1, 14.7), note: 'won 31 juli op Duindigt' },
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{ n: 3, name: 'Memory de Legume', driver: 'Patrick de Haan', trainer: 'Patrick de Haan', sex: 'M', age: 7, form: [6, 7, 8, 4, 4], times: [t(1, 19.7), t(1, 16.9), t(1, 15.6), t(1, 18.2), t(1, 14.1)], purses: [1600, 4400, 4400, 1500, 2200], record: t(1, 14.1) },
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{ n: 4, name: "Pasion d'Oro", driver: 'Jaap van Rijn', trainer: 'Jack Mollema', sex: 'H', age: 4, form: [1, 5, 1, 1, 5], times: [t(1, 16.6), t(1, 11.6), t(1, 12.2), t(1, 21.1), t(1, 14.0)], purses: [2750, 19567, 2200, 1650, 13806], record: t(1, 11.6), note: 'liep in Zweden tegen sterkere' },
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{ n: 5, name: 'Nobell Starro', driver: 'Robin Bakker', trainer: 'Fons Bakker', sex: 'R', age: 6, form: [4, 2, 1, 2, 'D'], times: [t(1, 14.0), t(1, 16.2), t(1, 11.1)], purses: [2750, 5000, 2000, 2200, 4400], record: t(1, 11.1) },
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{ n: 6, name: 'Michel D', driver: 'Jim Veldman', trainer: 'Huug van Dijk', sex: 'H', age: 7, form: [3, 2, 1, 2, 1], times: [t(1, 20.2), t(1, 15.6), t(1, 14.1), t(1, 16.9), t(1, 14.9)], purses: [5000, 2750, 2000, 5500, 1500], record: t(1, 13.8), note: 'laatste tijd over 3375 m' },
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{ n: 7, name: 'Louis Vuiton', driver: 'Hugo Langeweg', trainer: 'Hugo Langeweg', sex: 'R', age: 8, form: [2, 5, 4, 'D', 1], times: [t(1, 17.8), t(1, 12.1), t(1, 16.9)], purses: [2750, 11000, 2200, 1650, 2750], record: t(1, 12.1), note: 'Paradepaard 2025' },
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{ n: 8, name: 'Nolana Boko', driver: 'John Dekker', trainer: 'Carel Roodenrijs', sex: 'R', age: 6, form: [1, 'D', 5, 4, 4], times: [t(1, 19.1), t(1, 20.9), t(1, 13.9), t(1, 23.0)], purses: [1600, 2750, 1100, 2000, 1210], record: t(1, 13.4), note: 'vaak op tragere banen (Alkmaar)' }
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]
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},
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{
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slug: 'south-holland',
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number: 5,
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name: 'South Holland Prijs · TCT Tweejarigen Satellietkoers',
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short: 'South Holland Prijs',
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time: '17:10',
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distance: 1609,
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start: 'Autostart',
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purse: 4000,
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surface: 'Sintelbaan · goed',
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discipline: 'draf',
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conditions: 'Draverij voor tweejarigen (sprint, 1609 m)',
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preview:
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'Sisi Hazelaar (5) is op basis van haar laatste tweede plaats in Wolvega, waar ze een puike indruk maakte, kansrijk. Zo ook Seabiscuit Lobell (4), die vorige week bij haar debuut tweede werd achter Salina Meerswal; met een fijn stuk speed kan ze binnendoor plek twee veroveren. Spirit Meerswal (2) debuteerde met een derde plaats in Wolvega in 15,2 en is kanshebber nummer drie. Sophie Starlake (1) debuteert voor de stal van Dion Tesselaar, en dan zijn we sowieso gewaarschuwd.',
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tips: [5, 4, 2, 1],
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sources: [{ label: 'ZEturf koerskaart', href: ze(5, 'south-holland-prijs-tct-tweejarigen-satellietkoers') }],
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runners: [
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{ n: 1, name: 'Sophie Starlake', driver: 'Dion Tesselaar', trainer: 'Dion Tesselaar', sex: 'M', age: 2, form: [], times: [], purses: [], record: null, note: 'debutant · stal Tesselaar' },
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{ n: 2, name: 'Spirit Meerswal', driver: 'Jaap van Rijn', trainer: 'Jack Mollema', sex: 'H', age: 2, form: [3], times: [t(1, 15.2)], purses: [5500], record: t(1, 15.2) },
|
||||
{ n: 3, name: 'Shiva Jabi', driver: 'Jan Baas', trainer: 'Jan Baas', sex: 'H', age: 2, form: ['D', 'D'], times: [], purses: [3300, 5500], record: null, note: 'twee keer uit de draf' },
|
||||
{ n: 4, name: 'Seabiscuit Lobell', driver: 'Hugo Langeweg', trainer: 'Hugo Langeweg', sex: 'M', age: 2, form: [2], times: [t(1, 15.2)], purses: [3300], record: t(1, 15.2), note: '2e bij debuut, 10 september' },
|
||||
{ n: 5, name: 'Sisi Hazelaar', driver: 'Jeffrey Mieras', trainer: 'Dion Tesselaar', sex: 'M', age: 2, form: [2, 'D'], times: [t(1, 15.0)], purses: [5500, 5500], record: t(1, 15.0) },
|
||||
{ n: 6, name: 'Sir Bianco', driver: 'Frans van der Blonk', trainer: 'Frans van der Blonk', sex: 'R', age: 2, form: [], times: [], purses: [], record: null, note: 'debutant' }
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
];
|
||||
|
||||
export const raceBySlug = (slug: string) => races.find((r) => r.slug === slug);
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user