From 61ae72e50bcbdc739700a85d2b88eb38d0858126 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Stan Runge <stan@stanrunge.dev>
Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:13:20 +0000
Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?money=20scenarios:=20forecast=20horizon=201?=
 =?UTF-8?q?=E2=80=93100y=20(=3Fhorizon=3D),=20today=E2=80=99s-euro=20view,?=
 =?UTF-8?q?=20scaling=20gridlines,=20career=20paths=20with=20job=20hops=20?=
 =?UTF-8?q?and=20plateaus,=20crash=20cycles=20per=20portfolio,=20retiremen?=
 =?UTF-8?q?t=20at=2068=20with=20withdrawals,=20salary=20path=20table?=
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit

---
 src/lib/money-tracker/MoneyChart.svelte      |   6 +-
 src/lib/money-tracker/ScenarioDetails.svelte | 118 +++++-
 src/lib/money-tracker/charts.test.ts         |  24 ++
 src/lib/money-tracker/charts.ts              |  57 ++-
 src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.test.ts      |  67 +++-
 src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.ts           | 395 ++++++++++++++-----
 src/routes/trackers/money/+page.svelte       |  97 ++++-
 src/routes/trackers/money/money-tracker.css  |   7 +
 8 files changed, 642 insertions(+), 129 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/lib/money-tracker/MoneyChart.svelte b/src/lib/money-tracker/MoneyChart.svelte
index 975de43..a8af5f5 100644
--- a/src/lib/money-tracker/MoneyChart.svelte
+++ b/src/lib/money-tracker/MoneyChart.svelte
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
 		title: string;
 		unit?: string;
 		marker?: { date: string; label: string };
-		/** Vertical gridlines: every month (1 January drawn stronger) or every year. */
+		/** Vertical gridlines: every month (1 January drawn stronger), every year, or every decade. */
 		grid?: GridMode;
 	} = $props();
 	let clientWidth = $state(800);
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@
 		grid && values.length ? timeGrid(isoDate(from), isoDate(until), grid) : []
 	);
 	let axisTicks = $derived(
-		grid === 'years'
+		grid === 'years' || grid === 'decades'
 			? yearLabels(gridLines, Math.max(2, Math.floor((width - plot.left - plot.right) / 44)))
 			: ticks()
 	);
@@ -123,7 +123,7 @@
 		return result;
 	}
 	function tickLabel(date: string) {
-		return grid === 'years' ? date.slice(0, 4) : dateLabel(date);
+		return grid === 'years' || grid === 'decades' ? date.slice(0, 4) : dateLabel(date);
 	}
 	function dateLabel(date: string, withDay = false) {
 		return new Date(time(date)).toLocaleDateString('en-NL', {
diff --git a/src/lib/money-tracker/ScenarioDetails.svelte b/src/lib/money-tracker/ScenarioDetails.svelte
index 5ed8cc6..51c9d73 100644
--- a/src/lib/money-tracker/ScenarioDetails.svelte
+++ b/src/lib/money-tracker/ScenarioDetails.svelte
@@ -3,6 +3,8 @@
 	import { Input } from '#lib/components/ui/input/index.js';
 	import { NativeSelect } from '#lib/components/ui/native-select/index.js';
 	import {
+		marketReturns,
+		salaryBands,
 		scenarioColor,
 		scenarioFacts,
 		scenarioIds,
@@ -33,34 +35,48 @@
 	}[keyof ScenarioParams];
 	const groups: { title: string; fields: { key: NumberField; label: string; unit: string }[] }[] = [
 		{
-			title: 'Markets',
+			title: 'Portfolio and markets',
 			fields: [
-				{ key: 'returnPercent', label: 'Yearly return', unit: '%' },
+				{ key: 'returnPercent', label: 'Average return incl. crashes', unit: '%/yr' },
+				{ key: 'volatilityPercent', label: 'Volatility (context)', unit: '%' },
 				{ key: 'crashPercent', label: 'Crash (0 = none)', unit: '%' },
-				{ key: 'crashYear', label: 'Crash year', unit: '' },
-				{ key: 'recoveryPercent', label: 'Return after a crash', unit: '%' },
+				{ key: 'crashEveryYears', label: 'Crash every', unit: 'yr' },
+				{ key: 'firstCrashYear', label: 'First crash', unit: '' },
+				{ key: 'correctionPercent', label: 'Mid-cycle correction', unit: '%' },
 				{ key: 'cashRatePercent', label: 'Interest on cash', unit: '%' },
 				{ key: 'inflationPercent', label: 'Inflation', unit: '%' }
 			]
 		},
 		{
-			title: 'Work',
+			title: 'Career',
 			fields: [
 				{ key: 'gapMonths', label: 'Gap after Sep 2027', unit: 'mo' },
-				{ key: 'gapNetEuros', label: 'Benefit during gap', unit: '€/mo' },
+				{ key: 'gapNetEuros', label: 'Benefit during a gap', unit: '€/mo' },
 				{ key: 'nextJobPercent', label: 'Pay change Oct 2027', unit: '%' },
 				{ key: 'raisePercent', label: 'Yearly raise', unit: '%' },
 				{ key: 'raiseMonth', label: 'Raise month', unit: '' },
 				{ key: 'raiseFromYear', label: 'Raises from', unit: '' },
+				{ key: 'firstHopYear', label: 'First job hop (Oct)', unit: '' },
+				{ key: 'hopEveryYears', label: 'Hop every (0 = never)', unit: 'yr' },
+				{ key: 'hopRaisePercent', label: 'Raise per hop', unit: '%' },
+				{ key: 'hopGapMonths', label: 'Gap before each hop', unit: 'mo' },
+				{ key: 'salaryCapEuros', label: 'Plateau base salary', unit: '€/yr' },
 				{ key: 'bonusPercentOfTarget', label: 'Bonus paid of estimate', unit: '%' },
 				{ key: 'sideStartEuros', label: 'Side income now (gross)', unit: '€/mo' },
-				{ key: 'sideEndEuros', label: 'Side income at end (gross)', unit: '€/mo' }
+				{ key: 'sideEndEuros', label: 'Side income from year 5', unit: '€/mo' }
+			]
+		},
+		{
+			title: 'Retirement',
+			fields: [
+				{ key: 'retireAge', label: 'Retire at age', unit: '' },
+				{ key: 'pensionNetEuros', label: 'AOW + pension (net)', unit: '€/mo' }
 			]
 		},
 		{
 			title: 'Spending',
 			fields: [
-				{ key: 'spendGrowthPercent', label: 'Spending growth', unit: '%/yr' },
+				{ key: 'spendGrowthPercent', label: 'Spending growth, first 10 yr', unit: '%/yr' },
 				{ key: 'otherSpendEuros', label: 'Other personal spending', unit: '€/mo' },
 				{ key: 'healthInsuranceEuros', label: 'Health insurance (assumed)', unit: '€/mo' },
 				{ key: 'householdSharePercent', label: 'Your share of household', unit: '%' },
@@ -85,6 +101,14 @@
 			: 'Not by the end';
 	let active = $derived(params[selected]);
 	let result = $derived(results[selected]);
+	let normalReturn = $derived(marketReturns(active).normal);
+	/** Salary path rows through the retirement year. */
+	let career = $derived(
+		result.years.filter(
+			(row, index, rows) => row.role !== 'Retired' || rows[index - 1]?.role !== 'Retired'
+		)
+	);
+	const percent = (value: number) => `${(value * 100).toFixed(1)}%`;
 </script>
 
 <div class="scenario-cards" role="group" aria-label="Scenario end values">
@@ -121,7 +145,10 @@
 							/></label
 						>
 					{/each}
-					{#if group.title === 'Markets'}
+					{#if group.title === 'Portfolio and markets'}
+						<label class="wide"
+							><span>Portfolio mix</span><Input bind:value={params[selected].portfolio} /></label
+						>
 						<label
 							><span>Box 3 (36%, from 2028)</span><NativeSelect bind:value={params[selected].box3}
 								><option value="accrual">Yearly gains</option><option value="realisation"
@@ -133,13 +160,43 @@
 				</fieldset>
 			{/each}
 		</div>
+		<p class="muted scenario-portfolio">
+			<strong>{active.label} portfolio:</strong>
+			{active.portfolio}. Average {active.returnPercent}%/yr nominal, volatility about {active.volatilityPercent}%.
+			{#if active.crashPercent !== 0}A {active.crashPercent}% crash every {active.crashEveryYears} years
+				from {active.firstCrashYear}{active.correctionPercent !== 0
+					? `, a ${active.correctionPercent}% correction halfway between`
+					: ''}, and {percent(normalReturn)} in the other years so it averages out.
+			{:else}No crashes modelled.{/if}
+			Retirement in {scenarioFacts.birthYear + active.retireAge} at {active.retireAge}: salary and
+			side income stop, {cents(active.pensionNetEuros * 100)}/mo net pension (today’s €) starts, and
+			the rest of the spending is sold from investments.
+		</p>
 		<div class="scenario-actions">
 			<p class="muted">
 				Edits recalculate the chart right away and are not saved. Fixed for every scenario: contract
 				gross {cents(scenarioFacts.grossCents)}/mo until 30 Sep 2027, net salary and all costs from
 				the recurring list, cash buffer {cents(scenarioFacts.bufferCents)} then everything is invested,
 				Joint contribution {cents(scenarioFacts.preMoveHouseholdCents)}/mo until the rent starts,
-				your partner’s income pays her share, DUO {cents(scenarioFacts.duoCents)}/mo from {scenarioFacts.duoFrom}.
+				your partner’s income pays her share, DUO {cents(scenarioFacts.duoCents)}/mo from {scenarioFacts.duoFrom}
+				to {scenarioFacts.duoUntil}. Prices, benefits, pension, the buffer and the salary plateau
+				grow with inflation; spending grows at the spending rate for ten years, then with inflation.
+				Box 3 keeps taxing gains (losses carried forward). Salary bands (base per year, excl. 8%
+				holiday pay): medior €52–68k, senior €65–91k, lead €79–110k (<a
+					href="https://chaseitrecruitment.nl/tools/salaris/software-engineer/"
+					rel="external noreferrer">Chase IT 2026</a
+				>,
+				<a
+					href="https://searchcompany.nl/werving-en-selectie-blogartikel/it-salaris-nederland-2026/"
+					rel="external noreferrer">The Search Company 2026</a
+				>); staff in Amsterdam about €100–139k base (<a
+					href="https://www.glassdoor.com.hk/Salaries/amsterdam-netherlands-staff-engineer-salary-SRCH_IL.0,21_IM1112_KO22,36.htm"
+					rel="external noreferrer">Glassdoor</a
+				>), Adyen/GitLab staff €120–188k total pay and Amsterdam senior median €122k total pay (<a
+					href="https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/locations/amsterdam-nld"
+					rel="external noreferrer">levels.fyi</a
+				>). A Cargill US move (L-1) is upside that is not modelled: US pay, tax and costs differ too
+				much to fold into these euros.
 			</p>
 			<Button variant="outline" disabled={!edited} onclick={onreset}>Reset assumptions</Button>
 		</div>
@@ -168,6 +225,32 @@
 				>
 			</table>
 		</div>
+		<details class="salary-path">
+			<summary>{active.label} salary path</summary>
+			<div class="table-wrap">
+				<table>
+					<thead
+						><tr
+							><th>Year</th><th class="numeric">Age</th><th>Role (band)</th><th class="numeric"
+								>Gross/mo</th
+							><th class="numeric">Base/yr, today’s €</th><th>Change</th></tr
+						></thead
+					><tbody
+						>{#each career as row (row.year)}<tr
+								><td>{row.year}</td><td class="numeric">{row.age}</td><td>{row.role}</td><td
+									class="numeric">{row.grossMonthly ? cents(row.grossMonthly) : '–'}</td
+								><td class="numeric">{row.baseReal ? cents(row.baseReal * 100) : '–'}</td><td
+									>{row.events.join('; ')}</td
+								></tr
+							>{/each}</tbody
+					>
+				</table>
+			</div>
+			<p class="muted">
+				Roles follow the base salary in today’s euros:
+				{salaryBands.map((band) => `${band.role} from ${cents(band.fromEuros * 100)}`).join(', ')}.
+			</p>
+		</details>
 		<ul class="scenario-milestones" aria-label="Milestones">
 			{#each result.milestones as milestone (milestone.label)}
 				<li>
@@ -236,6 +319,21 @@
 		font-weight: 600;
 		margin-bottom: 0.25rem;
 	}
+	.scenario-portfolio {
+		font-size: 0.85rem;
+		line-height: 1.5;
+	}
+	.salary-path summary {
+		cursor: pointer;
+		font-weight: 600;
+	}
+	.table-wrap {
+		max-height: 28rem;
+		overflow: auto;
+	}
+	label.wide {
+		grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+	}
 	label {
 		display: grid;
 		grid-template-columns: 1fr 8rem;
diff --git a/src/lib/money-tracker/charts.test.ts b/src/lib/money-tracker/charts.test.ts
index a2bbd8b..959bf82 100644
--- a/src/lib/money-tracker/charts.test.ts
+++ b/src/lib/money-tracker/charts.test.ts
@@ -5,6 +5,9 @@ import {
 	balanceSeries,
 	forecastSeries,
 	parseHistoryRange,
+	gridFor,
+	horizonEnd,
+	parseHorizon,
 	timeGrid,
 	yearLabels,
 	utilityEstimate,
@@ -349,4 +352,25 @@ describe('history range', () => {
 		]);
 		expect(timeGrid('2026-01-02', '2026-01-01', 'months')).toEqual([]);
 	});
+
+	it('reads the forecast horizon and picks gridlines that scale with the span', () => {
+		expect(parseHorizon('10y')).toBe('10y');
+		expect(parseHorizon('2y')).toBe('5y');
+		expect(parseHorizon(null)).toBe('5y');
+		expect(horizonEnd('100y', '2026-10-24')).toBe('2126-10-24');
+		expect(gridFor('2025-10-24', '2027-10-24')).toBe('months');
+		expect(gridFor('2025-10-24', '2056-10-24')).toBe('years');
+		expect(gridFor('2025-10-24', '2076-10-24')).toBe('decades');
+		const decades = timeGrid('2025-10-24', '2126-10-24', 'decades');
+		expect(decades.map((line) => line.date.slice(0, 4))).toEqual(
+			[2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100, 2110, 2120].map(String)
+		);
+		expect(yearLabels(decades, 5).map((date) => date.slice(0, 4))).toEqual([
+			'2040',
+			'2060',
+			'2080',
+			'2100',
+			'2120'
+		]);
+	});
 });
diff --git a/src/lib/money-tracker/charts.ts b/src/lib/money-tracker/charts.ts
index 4fd281f..b490ce6 100644
--- a/src/lib/money-tracker/charts.ts
+++ b/src/lib/money-tracker/charts.ts
@@ -134,7 +134,9 @@ export function wealthProjection(
 	forecasts: ProjectionMovement[],
 	recurring: ProjectionRecurring[],
 	settings: ProjectionSettings | null,
-	today: string
+	today: string,
+	/** Overrides the settings' end date, e.g. with the chart's forecast horizon. */
+	endDate?: string | null
 ): ChartSeries[] {
 	const excluded = excludedIds(accounts);
 	const counted = (accountId: number | null) => accountId === null || !excluded.has(accountId);
@@ -164,9 +166,11 @@ export function wealthProjection(
 	const fallback = new Date(`${today}T12:00:00Z`);
 	fallback.setUTCFullYear(fallback.getUTCFullYear() + 1);
 	const horizon =
-		settings?.endDate && settings.endDate > today
-			? settings.endDate
-			: latestMovement || fallback.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+		endDate && endDate > today
+			? endDate
+			: settings?.endDate && settings.endDate > today
+				? settings.endDate
+				: latestMovement || fallback.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
 	const monthEnd = (year: number, month: number) =>
 		new Date(Date.UTC(year, month + 1, 0)).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
 	const start = new Date(`${today}T12:00:00Z`);
@@ -174,7 +178,7 @@ export function wealthProjection(
 	let month = start.getUTCMonth();
 	const yearly = Number(settings?.annualReturnPercent ?? 5) / 100;
 	const monthlyGrowth = Math.pow(1 + yearly, 1 / 12) - 1;
-	for (let index = 0; index < 240; index++) {
+	for (let index = 0; index < 1212; index++) {
 		const first = `${year}-${String(month + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-01`;
 		const end = monthEnd(year, month);
 		const date = end < horizon ? end : horizon;
@@ -366,12 +370,42 @@ export function parseHistoryRange(value: string | null | undefined): HistoryRang
 	return value === '3y' || value === 'all' ? value : '1y';
 }
 
-export type GridMode = 'months' | 'years';
+export type ForecastHorizon = '1y' | '3y' | '5y' | '10y' | '20y' | '30y' | '50y' | '100y';
+export const forecastHorizons: ForecastHorizon[] = [
+	'1y',
+	'3y',
+	'5y',
+	'10y',
+	'20y',
+	'30y',
+	'50y',
+	'100y'
+];
+
+/** Reads a `?horizon=` value, falling back to five years for anything unknown. */
+export function parseHorizon(value: string | null | undefined): ForecastHorizon {
+	return forecastHorizons.find((item) => item === value) ?? '5y';
+}
+
+/** Last projected date for a horizon: the same day N years from today. */
+export function horizonEnd(horizon: ForecastHorizon, today: string): string {
+	return `${Number(today.slice(0, 4)) + Number.parseInt(horizon)}${today.slice(4)}`;
+}
+
+/** Gridlines that stay readable for the whole chart span: months, years, or decades. */
+export function gridFor(from: string | null | undefined, until: string): GridMode {
+	if (!from) return 'years';
+	const years = (Date.parse(until) - Date.parse(from)) / (365.25 * 86_400_000);
+	return years <= 4.5 ? 'months' : years <= 40 ? 'years' : 'decades';
+}
+
+export type GridMode = 'months' | 'years' | 'decades';
 export type GridLine = { date: string; year: boolean };
 
 /**
  * Vertical gridlines between two dates (inclusive): the first of every month (`months`),
- * or only 1 January (`years`). Lines on 1 January are flagged so they can be drawn stronger.
+ * only 1 January (`years`), or 1 January of every tenth year (`decades`). Lines on 1 January
+ * are flagged so they can be drawn stronger.
  */
 export function timeGrid(from: string, until: string, mode: GridMode): GridLine[] {
 	const lines: GridLine[] = [];
@@ -379,12 +413,12 @@ export function timeGrid(from: string, until: string, mode: GridMode): GridLine[
 	let year = Number(from.slice(0, 4));
 	let month = Number(from.slice(5, 7)) - 1;
 	if (from.slice(8) !== '01') month++;
-	for (let guard = 0; guard < 1200; guard++) {
+	for (let guard = 0; guard < 2400; guard++) {
 		if (month > 11) {
 			month = 0;
 			year++;
 		}
-		if (mode === 'years' && month !== 0) {
+		if ((mode === 'years' && month !== 0) || (mode === 'decades' && (month !== 0 || year % 10))) {
 			month = 12;
 			continue;
 		}
@@ -399,6 +433,9 @@ export function timeGrid(from: string, until: string, mode: GridMode): GridLine[
 /** Year labels for the `years` grid, thinned to every 2nd/5th/10th year when crowded. */
 export function yearLabels(lines: GridLine[], maxLabels: number): string[] {
 	const years = lines.filter((line) => line.year).map((line) => line.date);
-	const step = [1, 2, 5, 10, 20].find((size) => Math.ceil(years.length / size) <= maxLabels) ?? 50;
+	const step =
+		[1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50].find(
+			(size) => years.filter((date) => Number(date.slice(0, 4)) % size === 0).length <= maxLabels
+		) ?? 100;
 	return years.filter((date) => Number(date.slice(0, 4)) % step === 0);
 }
diff --git a/src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.test.ts b/src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.test.ts
index 5c948e5..af94a44 100644
--- a/src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.test.ts
+++ b/src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.test.ts
@@ -1,5 +1,12 @@
 import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest';
-import { defaultScenarios, runScenario, scenarioInputs, type ScenarioParams } from './scenarios';
+import {
+	defaultScenarios,
+	marketReturns,
+	roleFor,
+	runScenario,
+	scenarioInputs,
+	type ScenarioParams
+} from './scenarios';
 
 const accounts = [
 	{ id: 1, name: 'Revolut', kind: 'checking' },
@@ -55,8 +62,11 @@ describe('runScenario', () => {
 	const flat: ScenarioParams = {
 		...defaultScenarios.realistic,
 		returnPercent: 0,
-		recoveryPercent: 0,
+		crashPercent: 0,
+		correctionPercent: 0,
 		cashRatePercent: 0,
+		inflationPercent: 0,
+		hopEveryYears: 0,
 		sideStartEuros: 0,
 		sideEndEuros: 0,
 		spendGrowthPercent: 0,
@@ -97,17 +107,60 @@ describe('runScenario', () => {
 		expect(pessimistic).toBeLessThan(realistic);
 		expect(realistic).toBeLessThan(optimistic);
 	});
-	it('applies a crash in its year and a job gap after the contract', () => {
-		const calm = runScenario(inputs, { ...flat, returnPercent: 5, recoveryPercent: 5 });
+	it('applies crashes and job gaps', () => {
+		const calm = runScenario(inputs, { ...flat, returnPercent: 5 });
 		const crash = runScenario(inputs, {
 			...flat,
 			returnPercent: 5,
-			recoveryPercent: 5,
 			crashPercent: -30,
-			crashYear: 2027
+			crashEveryYears: 10,
+			firstCrashYear: 2027
 		});
-		expect(crash.end.total).toBeLessThan(calm.end.total);
+		// The crash year itself ends lower; later years catch up to the same long-run average.
+		const at2027 = (result: typeof calm) => result.years.find((row) => row.year === 2027)!.total;
+		expect(at2027(crash)).toBeLessThan(at2027(calm));
 		const gap = runScenario(inputs, { ...flat, gapMonths: 3, gapNetEuros: 1000 });
 		expect(gap.end.total).toBeLessThan(runScenario(inputs, flat).end.total);
 	});
+	it('averages the crash cycle out at the expected return', () => {
+		const markets = marketReturns({
+			...flat,
+			returnPercent: 7,
+			crashPercent: -30,
+			crashEveryYears: 10,
+			firstCrashYear: 2029,
+			correctionPercent: -10
+		});
+		let growth = 1;
+		for (let year = 2029; year < 2039; year++) growth *= 1 + markets.yearReturn(year).rate;
+		expect(growth).toBeCloseTo(Math.pow(1.07, 10), 6);
+		expect(markets.yearReturn(2029).kind).toBe('crash');
+		expect(markets.yearReturn(2034).kind).toBe('correction');
+		expect(markets.yearReturn(2028).kind).toBe('normal');
+	});
+	it('hops jobs, caps the salary and retires at the chosen age', () => {
+		const long = { ...inputs, endDate: '2126-10-24' };
+		const result = runScenario(long, {
+			...flat,
+			firstHopYear: 2029,
+			hopEveryYears: 3,
+			hopRaisePercent: 20,
+			hopGapMonths: 4,
+			salaryCapEuros: 60000
+		});
+		expect(result.points).toHaveLength(1201);
+		const byYear = new Map(result.years.map((row) => [row.year, row]));
+		expect(byYear.get(2029)!.events).toEqual(['Between jobs (4 mo)']);
+		expect(byYear.get(2030)!.events).toEqual(['New job']);
+		// The gap runs into 2030, when the raise lands, then the plateau caps it.
+		expect(byYear.get(2030)!.grossMonthly).toBeCloseTo(500000, -1);
+		expect(byYear.get(2071)!.role).toBe('Retired');
+		expect(byYear.get(2071)!.events).toContain('Retire at 68');
+		expect(byYear.get(2070)!.age).toBe(67);
+	});
+	it('labels roles by base salary in today’s euros', () => {
+		expect(roleFor(44700)).toBe('Junior');
+		expect(roleFor(70000)).toBe('Senior');
+		expect(roleFor(150000)).toBe('Principal / big-tech staff');
+	});
 });
diff --git a/src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.ts b/src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.ts
index 869f10e..7a8d250 100644
--- a/src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.ts
+++ b/src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.ts
@@ -1,8 +1,9 @@
 /**
- * Pessimistic / realistic / optimistic wealth scenarios to the projection end date.
+ * Pessimistic / realistic / optimistic wealth scenarios to the chosen horizon (up to 100 years).
  *
  * Money in the tracker drives the start balances, recurring costs and one-off estimates; each
- * scenario adds labelled assumptions (returns, salary path, spending growth, Box 3, inflation)
+ * scenario adds labelled assumptions (portfolio and crashes, career path, retirement, spending
+ * growth, Box 3, inflation)
  * that the page lists and lets you tweak. Amounts are in cents, except the editable assumptions,
  * which are whole euros or percentages so they read like the inputs on the page.
  */
@@ -14,34 +15,53 @@ export const scenarioIds: ScenarioId[] = ['pessimistic', 'realistic', 'optimisti
 
 export type ScenarioParams = {
 	label: string;
-	/** Yearly investment return before any crash, in percent. */
+	/** Portfolio mix, shown with the assumptions. */
+	portfolio: string;
+	/** Long-run average yearly return of the portfolio including crashes, in percent. */
 	returnPercent: number;
-	/** Market drop in the crash year (percent, e.g. -28); 0 means no crash. */
+	/** Typical yearly swing (standard deviation), percent; shown for context. */
+	volatilityPercent: number;
+	/** Market drop in a crash year (percent, e.g. -30); 0 means no crashes. */
 	crashPercent: number;
-	crashYear: number;
-	/** Yearly return in the years after the crash, in percent. */
-	recoveryPercent: number;
+	/** Years between crashes, counted from the first crash year. */
+	crashEveryYears: number;
+	firstCrashYear: number;
+	/** Smaller correction halfway between crashes, percent (0 = none). */
+	correctionPercent: number;
 	/** Interest on the cash buffer, percent per year. */
 	cashRatePercent: number;
-	/** Months without a job after the contract ends (unemployment benefit instead). */
+	/** Inflation: prices, the salary cap, pension and benefits grow with it; percent. */
+	inflationPercent: number;
+	/** Months without a job after the contract ends on 30 Sep 2027 (benefit instead). */
 	gapMonths: number;
-	/** Net unemployment benefit per month during the gap, euros. */
+	/** Net unemployment benefit per month during a gap, today's euros. */
 	gapNetEuros: number;
-	/** Gross salary change at the extension or next job, percent. */
+	/** Gross salary change at the extension or next job in October 2027, percent. */
 	nextJobPercent: number;
 	/** Yearly raise in percent, applied each raiseMonth from raiseFromYear. */
 	raisePercent: number;
 	raiseMonth: number;
 	raiseFromYear: number;
+	/** Job hops: in October of the first year, then every N years (0 = never). */
+	firstHopYear: number;
+	hopEveryYears: number;
+	/** Gross raise at each hop, percent. */
+	hopRaisePercent: number;
+	/** Months without a job before each hop starts (unemployment spells). */
+	hopGapMonths: number;
+	/** Career plateau: base salary cap per year in today's euros (excl. holiday pay). */
+	salaryCapEuros: number;
 	/** Share of the contract's bonus estimate actually paid each August, 0–100. */
 	bonusPercentOfTarget: number;
-	/** Side income, gross euros per month, ramping linearly to the end value. */
+	/** Side income, gross today's euros per month, ramping over five years to the end value. */
 	sideStartEuros: number;
 	sideEndEuros: number;
-	/** Spending growth per year (lifestyle creep plus prices), percent. */
+	/** Retirement age: salary and side income stop, pension starts, spending comes out of savings. */
+	retireAge: number;
+	/** Net pension per month (AOW plus workplace pension), today's euros. */
+	pensionNetEuros: number;
+	/** Spending growth per year for the first ten years (prices plus lifestyle), then inflation. */
 	spendGrowthPercent: number;
-	/** Inflation used to show the end value in today's euros, percent. */
-	inflationPercent: number;
 	/** Your share of Joint household costs after the move, percent. */
 	householdSharePercent: number;
 	/** Personal spending not in the recurring list (going out, transport, shopping), euros/month. */
@@ -59,22 +79,32 @@ export type ScenarioParams = {
 export const defaultScenarios: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams> = {
 	pessimistic: {
 		label: 'Pessimistic',
-		returnPercent: 0,
-		crashPercent: -28,
-		crashYear: 2027,
-		recoveryPercent: 15,
+		portfolio: '60% global equity ETF, 40% euro bonds',
+		returnPercent: 4,
+		volatilityPercent: 10,
+		crashPercent: -25,
+		crashEveryYears: 8,
+		firstCrashYear: 2027,
+		correctionPercent: -8,
 		cashRatePercent: 0,
+		inflationPercent: 2.5,
 		gapMonths: 3,
 		gapNetEuros: 2300,
 		nextJobPercent: 0,
 		raisePercent: 2,
 		raiseMonth: 1,
 		raiseFromYear: 2029,
+		firstHopYear: 2031,
+		hopEveryYears: 5,
+		hopRaisePercent: 15,
+		hopGapMonths: 3,
+		salaryCapEuros: 75000,
 		bonusPercentOfTarget: 0,
 		sideStartEuros: 100,
 		sideEndEuros: 100,
+		retireAge: 68,
+		pensionNetEuros: 1700,
 		spendGrowthPercent: 3.5,
-		inflationPercent: 2.5,
 		householdSharePercent: 57,
 		otherSpendEuros: 400,
 		householdExtraEuros: 200,
@@ -84,22 +114,32 @@ export const defaultScenarios: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams> = {
 	},
 	realistic: {
 		label: 'Realistic',
-		returnPercent: 6.5,
-		crashPercent: 0,
-		crashYear: 2027,
-		recoveryPercent: 6.5,
+		portfolio: '100% global equity ETF (all-world index)',
+		returnPercent: 7,
+		volatilityPercent: 15,
+		crashPercent: -30,
+		crashEveryYears: 10,
+		firstCrashYear: 2029,
+		correctionPercent: -10,
 		cashRatePercent: 1.5,
+		inflationPercent: 2.5,
 		gapMonths: 0,
 		gapNetEuros: 2300,
-		nextJobPercent: 3,
-		raisePercent: 3.5,
+		nextJobPercent: 6,
+		raisePercent: 4,
 		raiseMonth: 10,
 		raiseFromYear: 2028,
+		firstHopYear: 2029,
+		hopEveryYears: 3,
+		hopRaisePercent: 20,
+		hopGapMonths: 0,
+		salaryCapEuros: 95000,
 		bonusPercentOfTarget: 100,
 		sideStartEuros: 250,
 		sideEndEuros: 500,
-		spendGrowthPercent: 2.5,
-		inflationPercent: 2.5,
+		retireAge: 68,
+		pensionNetEuros: 2400,
+		spendGrowthPercent: 3,
 		householdSharePercent: 50,
 		otherSpendEuros: 330,
 		householdExtraEuros: 65,
@@ -109,22 +149,32 @@ export const defaultScenarios: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams> = {
 	},
 	optimistic: {
 		label: 'Optimistic',
-		returnPercent: 9,
-		crashPercent: 0,
-		crashYear: 2027,
-		recoveryPercent: 9,
+		portfolio: '80% global equity ETF, 20% tech, small-cap and factor tilts',
+		returnPercent: 9.5,
+		volatilityPercent: 19,
+		crashPercent: -38,
+		crashEveryYears: 10,
+		firstCrashYear: 2030,
+		correctionPercent: -15,
 		cashRatePercent: 1.5,
+		inflationPercent: 2.5,
 		gapMonths: 0,
 		gapNetEuros: 2300,
-		nextJobPercent: 6,
-		raisePercent: 5,
+		nextJobPercent: 8,
+		raisePercent: 6,
 		raiseMonth: 10,
 		raiseFromYear: 2028,
+		firstHopYear: 2029,
+		hopEveryYears: 3,
+		hopRaisePercent: 22,
+		hopGapMonths: 0,
+		salaryCapEuros: 150000,
 		bonusPercentOfTarget: 100,
 		sideStartEuros: 300,
 		sideEndEuros: 2500,
-		spendGrowthPercent: 2,
-		inflationPercent: 2.5,
+		retireAge: 68,
+		pensionNetEuros: 3200,
+		spendGrowthPercent: 2.5,
 		householdSharePercent: 45,
 		otherSpendEuros: 280,
 		householdExtraEuros: 0,
@@ -139,6 +189,8 @@ export const scenarioFacts = {
 	/** Contract gross per month and the date the current contract ends. */
 	grossCents: 372493,
 	contractEnd: '2027-09-30',
+	/** Born 2003: 23 now, so 68 is 2071 (the expected AOW age for that year is about 68–70). */
+	birthYear: 2003,
 	/** Extra net per extra gross euro: about 50% marginal tax after 2.65% pension. */
 	marginalNet: (1 - 0.0265) * 0.5,
 	/**
@@ -155,14 +207,36 @@ export const scenarioFacts = {
 	firstBonusYear: 2027,
 	bonusNetYearCents: 130000,
 	sideTaxRate: 0.4,
+	/** Cash buffer in today's euros (grows with inflation); everything above it is invested. */
 	bufferCents: 500000,
 	/** Joint household contribution before the move, per month (Apr–Oct 2026 average). */
 	preMoveHouseholdCents: 90000,
-	/** DUO study-debt repayment from 2029, per month. */
+	/** DUO study-debt repayment, per month, for at most 35 years from 2029. */
 	duoFrom: 2029,
-	duoCents: 10000
+	duoUntil: 2063,
+	duoCents: 10000,
+	/** Box 3 from 2028: 36% on gains above €1,000 a year, losses carried forward. */
+	box3Rate: 0.36,
+	box3FreeCents: 100000,
+	/** Withdrawal rate for the "passive income" milestone. */
+	withdrawalRate: 0.035,
+	/** Monthly amount for the income milestones, today's euros. */
+	targetMonthlyCents: 1_000_000
 };
 
+/** Base salary bands per year in today's euros (lower ends), for the role column. */
+export const salaryBands: { fromEuros: number; role: string }[] = [
+	{ fromEuros: 0, role: 'Junior' },
+	{ fromEuros: 52000, role: 'Medior' },
+	{ fromEuros: 65000, role: 'Senior' },
+	{ fromEuros: 85000, role: 'Lead / senior II' },
+	{ fromEuros: 105000, role: 'Staff / eng. manager' },
+	{ fromEuros: 135000, role: 'Principal / big-tech staff' }
+];
+export function roleFor(baseRealEuros: number) {
+	return salaryBands.findLast((band) => baseRealEuros >= band.fromEuros)?.role ?? 'Junior';
+}
+
 export type ScenarioRecurring = {
 	name: string;
 	amountCents: number;
@@ -206,6 +280,13 @@ export type ScenarioYear = {
 	invested: number;
 	real: number;
 	box3: number;
+	age: number;
+	/** Gross per month at year end (nominal, 0 when retired). */
+	grossMonthly: number;
+	/** Base salary per year in today's euros, for the role. */
+	baseReal: number;
+	role: string;
+	events: string[];
 };
 export type ScenarioResult = {
 	points: ScenarioPoint[];
@@ -299,33 +380,93 @@ function monthEnd(first: string) {
 		.slice(0, 10);
 }
 
+/**
+ * Years of a crash cycle: a crash in the first year, a correction halfway, and normal years whose
+ * return makes the whole cycle average out at the expected return.
+ */
+export function marketReturns(params: ScenarioParams) {
+	const pct = (value: number) => value / 100;
+	const every = Math.max(2, Math.round(params.crashEveryYears));
+	const crashes = params.crashPercent !== 0;
+	const corrections = crashes && params.correctionPercent !== 0 && every >= 3;
+	const shocks =
+		(1 + (crashes ? pct(params.crashPercent) : 0)) *
+		(1 + (corrections ? pct(params.correctionPercent) : 0));
+	const normalYears = every - (crashes ? 1 : 0) - (corrections ? 1 : 0);
+	const normal = crashes
+		? Math.pow(Math.pow(1 + pct(params.returnPercent), every) / shocks, 1 / normalYears) - 1
+		: pct(params.returnPercent);
+	return {
+		normal,
+		yearReturn(year: number) {
+			if (!crashes || year < params.firstCrashYear)
+				return { kind: 'normal' as const, rate: normal };
+			const offset = (year - params.firstCrashYear) % every;
+			if (offset === 0) return { kind: 'crash' as const, rate: pct(params.crashPercent) };
+			if (corrections && offset === Math.floor(every / 2))
+				return { kind: 'correction' as const, rate: pct(params.correctionPercent) };
+			return { kind: 'normal' as const, rate: normal };
+		}
+	};
+}
+
 export function runScenario(inputs: ScenarioInputs, params: ScenarioParams): ScenarioResult {
 	const facts = scenarioFacts;
 	const baseGross = facts.grossCents;
+	const pct = (value: number) => value / 100;
 	const netFromGross = (gross: number) =>
 		inputs.netSalaryCents + (gross - baseGross) * facts.marginalNet;
 	const gapStart = addMonths(facts.contractEnd, 1);
 	const gapEnd = params.gapMonths > 0 ? addMonths(gapStart, params.gapMonths) : gapStart;
-	const pct = (value: number) => value / 100;
+	const retireStart = `${facts.birthYear + Math.round(params.retireAge)}-01-01`;
+	const markets = marketReturns(params);
+	const monthlyInflation = Math.pow(1 + pct(params.inflationPercent), 1 / 12);
+	const isHopYear = (year: number) =>
+		params.hopEveryYears > 0 &&
+		year >= params.firstHopYear &&
+		(year - params.firstHopYear) % Math.max(1, Math.round(params.hopEveryYears)) === 0;
 	let cash = inputs.spendableCents;
 	let invested = inputs.investedCents;
+	let basis = inputs.investedCents;
 	let gross = baseGross;
 	let accruedHoliday = (facts.holidayNetYearCents / 12) * facts.holidayMonthsAccrued;
 	let accrued13 = (facts.thirteenthNetYearCents / 12) * facts.thirteenthMonthsAccrued;
 	let investedAtYearStart = invested;
 	let contributedThisYear = 0;
+	let realisedThisYear = 0;
+	let lossCarried = 0;
 	let box3Due = 0;
+	let deflator = 1;
+	let spendGrowth = 1;
+	const recentRealIncome: number[] = [];
 	const points: ScenarioPoint[] = [
 		{ date: inputs.today, cash, invested, total: cash + invested, real: cash + invested }
 	];
 	const years = new Map<number, ScenarioYear>();
+	const target = facts.targetMonthlyCents;
 	const milestones: { label: string; date: string | null; test: () => boolean }[] = [
-		{ label: 'Cash buffer full', date: null, test: () => cash >= facts.bufferCents - 100 },
-		...[10_000, 25_000, 50_000, 100_000].map((euros) => ({
-			label: `€${euros / 1000}k invested`,
+		{
+			label: 'Cash buffer full',
+			date: null,
+			test: () => cash >= facts.bufferCents * deflator - 100
+		},
+		...[10_000, 100_000, 250_000, 1_000_000].map((euros) => ({
+			label: `€${euros >= 1_000_000 ? `${euros / 1_000_000}M` : `${euros / 1000}k`} invested`,
 			date: null,
 			test: () => invested >= euros * 100
-		}))
+		})),
+		{
+			label: '€10k/mo net income (today’s €)',
+			date: null,
+			test: () =>
+				recentRealIncome.length === 12 &&
+				recentRealIncome.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / 12 >= target
+		},
+		{
+			label: '€10k/mo passive at 3.5% (today’s €)',
+			date: null,
+			test: () => ((invested / deflator) * facts.withdrawalRate) / 12 >= target
+		}
 	];
 	const firstMonth = addMonths(inputs.today, 1);
 	const totalMonths =
@@ -334,12 +475,13 @@ export function runScenario(inputs: ScenarioInputs, params: ScenarioParams): Sce
 		Number(firstMonth.slice(5, 7)) +
 		1;
 	const moveDate = inputs.moveDate ?? '9999-12-31';
-	for (let index = 0; index < Math.min(totalMonths, 600); index++) {
+	for (let index = 0; index < Math.min(totalMonths, 1212); index++) {
 		const first = addMonths(firstMonth, index);
 		const last = monthEnd(first);
 		const date = last < inputs.endDate ? last : inputs.endDate;
 		const year = Number(first.slice(0, 4));
 		const month = Number(first.slice(5, 7));
+		deflator *= monthlyInflation;
 		const row =
 			years.get(year) ??
 			years
@@ -352,66 +494,114 @@ export function runScenario(inputs: ScenarioInputs, params: ScenarioParams): Sce
 					total: 0,
 					invested: 0,
 					real: 0,
-					box3: 0
+					box3: 0,
+					age: year - facts.birthYear,
+					grossMonthly: 0,
+					baseReal: 0,
+					role: '',
+					events: []
 				})
 				.get(year)!;
 		if (month === 1) {
 			investedAtYearStart = invested;
 			contributedThisYear = 0;
+			realisedThisYear = 0;
 		}
-		// Salary path: extension or next job after the contract, with an optional gap.
-		const employed = !(params.gapMonths > 0 && first >= gapStart && first < gapEnd);
-		if (first === gapStart) gross = baseGross * (1 + pct(params.nextJobPercent));
-		if (first > gapStart && year >= params.raiseFromYear && month === params.raiseMonth)
+		const retired = first >= retireStart;
+		// Salary path: extension or next job after the contract (optional gap), raises, job hops
+		// in October (optional gap before each), capped at the career plateau in today's euros.
+		const hopStart = isHopYear(year) ? `${year}-10-01` : null;
+		// A gap that starts in October can run into the next year.
+		const hops = [year - 1, year].filter(isHopYear).map((hopYear) => {
+			const start = `${hopYear}-10-01`;
+			return { start, end: addMonths(start, Math.max(0, params.hopGapMonths)) };
+		});
+		const inHopGap = hops.some((hop) => first >= hop.start && first < hop.end);
+		const hopEnd = hops.find((hop) => hop.end === first)?.end ?? null;
+		const inContractGap = params.gapMonths > 0 && first >= gapStart && first < gapEnd;
+		const employed = !retired && !inHopGap && !inContractGap;
+		if (first === gapStart) {
+			gross = baseGross * (1 + pct(params.nextJobPercent));
+			row.events.push(
+				params.gapMonths > 0 ? `Contract ends, ${params.gapMonths} mo gap` : 'Contract renewed'
+			);
+		}
+		if (
+			first > gapStart &&
+			year >= params.raiseFromYear &&
+			month === params.raiseMonth &&
+			!(hopStart && month === 10)
+		)
 			gross *= 1 + pct(params.raisePercent);
-		let income = employed ? netFromGross(gross) : params.gapNetEuros * 100;
+		const cap = ((params.salaryCapEuros * 100) / 12) * deflator;
+		if (hopStart && first === hopStart && params.hopGapMonths > 0 && !retired)
+			row.events.push(`Between jobs (${params.hopGapMonths} mo)`);
+		if (hopEnd && first === hopEnd && !retired) {
+			const plateau = gross >= cap * 0.99;
+			gross *= 1 + pct(params.hopRaisePercent);
+			row.events.push(
+				(params.hopGapMonths > 0 ? 'New job' : 'Job hop') + (plateau ? ' (at plateau)' : '')
+			);
+		}
+		if (gross > cap) gross = cap;
+		const jobChange =
+			first === retireStart ||
+			(hopStart !== null && first === hopStart) ||
+			(params.gapMonths > 0 && first === gapStart);
+		let income = 0;
+		if (employed) income += netFromGross(gross);
+		else if (!retired) income += params.gapNetEuros * 100 * deflator;
 		if (employed) {
 			accruedHoliday += (facts.holidayNetYearCents / 12) * (gross / baseGross);
 			accrued13 += (facts.thirteenthNetYearCents / 12) * (gross / baseGross);
 		}
-		if (month === 5) {
+		if (month === 5 || jobChange) {
 			income += accruedHoliday;
 			accruedHoliday = 0;
 		}
-		if (month === 11) {
+		if (month === 11 || jobChange) {
 			income += accrued13;
 			accrued13 = 0;
 		}
-		// A job change pays out what is still accrued when the contract ends.
-		if (params.gapMonths > 0 && first === addMonths(facts.contractEnd, 0)) {
-			income += accruedHoliday + accrued13;
-			accruedHoliday = 0;
-			accrued13 = 0;
-		}
 		if (month === 8 && year >= facts.firstBonusYear && employed)
 			income +=
 				pct(params.bonusPercentOfTarget) *
 				(year === facts.firstBonusYear
 					? facts.firstBonusCents
 					: facts.bonusNetYearCents * (gross / baseGross));
-		const ramp = Math.min(1, Math.max(0, (index - 3) / Math.max(1, totalMonths - 4)));
-		const sideGross = params.sideStartEuros + (params.sideEndEuros - params.sideStartEuros) * ramp;
-		income += sideGross * 100 * (1 - facts.sideTaxRate);
+		if (retired) {
+			income += params.pensionNetEuros * 100 * deflator;
+			if (first === retireStart) row.events.push(`Retire at ${params.retireAge}`);
+		} else {
+			const ramp = Math.min(1, Math.max(0, (index - 3) / 57));
+			const sideGross =
+				params.sideStartEuros + (params.sideEndEuros - params.sideStartEuros) * ramp;
+			income += sideGross * 100 * deflator * (1 - facts.sideTaxRate);
+		}
 		// Recurring items from the tracker (positive ones such as benefits count as income).
-		const growth = Math.pow(1 + pct(params.spendGrowthPercent), Math.max(0, (index - 3) / 12));
+		if (index >= 3)
+			spendGrowth *= Math.pow(
+				1 + pct(index < 123 ? params.spendGrowthPercent : params.inflationPercent),
+				1 / 12
+			);
 		let spending = 0;
 		for (const item of inputs.personal) {
 			if (!activeIn(item, first, last)) continue;
 			const value = monthly(item);
-			if (value >= 0) income += value;
-			else spending -= value * growth;
+			if (value >= 0) income += retired ? 0 : value;
+			else spending -= value * spendGrowth;
 		}
-		spending += params.otherSpendEuros * 100 * growth;
-		if (first >= '2027-01-01') spending += params.healthInsuranceEuros * 100 * growth;
+		spending += params.otherSpendEuros * 100 * spendGrowth;
+		if (first >= '2027-01-01') spending += params.healthInsuranceEuros * 100 * spendGrowth;
 		if (first < moveDate.slice(0, 7) + '-01') spending += facts.preMoveHouseholdCents;
 		else {
 			let household = params.householdExtraEuros * 100;
 			for (const item of inputs.household)
 				if (activeIn(item, first, last)) household -= monthly(item);
-			spending += household * pct(params.householdSharePercent) * growth;
+			spending += household * pct(params.householdSharePercent) * spendGrowth;
 		}
 		if (first === moveDate.slice(0, 7) + '-01') spending += params.moveCostEuros * 100;
-		if (year >= facts.duoFrom) spending += facts.duoCents;
+		if (year >= facts.duoFrom && year <= facts.duoUntil) spending += facts.duoCents;
 		for (const item of inputs.oneOffs)
 			if ((index === 0 ? item.date > inputs.today : item.date >= first) && item.date <= last) {
 				if (item.amountCents >= 0) income += item.amountCents;
@@ -423,42 +613,55 @@ export function runScenario(inputs: ScenarioInputs, params: ScenarioParams): Sce
 			box3Due = 0;
 		}
 		cash += income - spending - tax;
-		// Returns: a crash spreads over March–October of its year.
-		const crash = params.crashPercent !== 0 && year === params.crashYear;
-		const yearly =
-			params.crashPercent !== 0 && year > params.crashYear
-				? pct(params.recoveryPercent)
-				: pct(params.returnPercent);
-		const rate = crash
-			? month >= 3 && month <= 10
-				? Math.pow(1 + pct(params.crashPercent), 1 / 8) - 1
-				: 0
-			: Math.pow(1 + yearly, 1 / 12) - 1;
+		// Returns: crash and correction years spread their drop over March–October.
+		const market = markets.yearReturn(year);
+		const rate =
+			market.kind === 'normal'
+				? Math.pow(1 + market.rate, 1 / 12) - 1
+				: month >= 3 && month <= 10
+					? Math.pow(1 + market.rate, 1 / 8) - 1
+					: 0;
 		invested += invested * rate;
 		cash *= Math.pow(1 + pct(params.cashRatePercent), 1 / 12);
-		if (cash > facts.bufferCents) {
-			const extra = cash - facts.bufferCents;
+		const buffer = facts.bufferCents * deflator;
+		if (cash > buffer) {
+			const extra = cash - buffer;
 			invested += extra;
+			basis += extra;
 			contributedThisYear += extra;
-			cash = facts.bufferCents;
+			cash = buffer;
 		} else if (cash < 0 && invested > 0) {
+			// Withdrawals: sell investments to cover the shortfall.
 			const sold = Math.min(invested, -cash);
+			const soldBasis = invested > 0 ? basis * (sold / invested) : 0;
+			realisedThisYear += sold - soldBasis;
+			basis -= soldBasis;
 			invested -= sold;
 			contributedThisYear -= sold;
 			cash += sold;
 		}
 		if (month === 12) {
 			const gain = invested - investedAtYearStart - contributedThisYear;
-			if (year >= 2028) box3Due = params.box3 === 'accrual' ? Math.max(0, gain - 100000) * 0.36 : 0;
-			else {
+			if (year >= 2028) {
+				const taxable = params.box3 === 'accrual' ? gain : realisedThisYear;
+				const net = taxable - lossCarried;
+				if (net < 0) {
+					lossCarried = -net;
+					box3Due = 0;
+				} else {
+					lossCarried = 0;
+					box3Due = Math.max(0, net - facts.box3FreeCents) * facts.box3Rate;
+				}
+			} else {
 				const exempt = year === 2026 ? 5_935_700 : 3_084_600;
 				const deemed = year === 2026 ? 0.06 : 0.0787;
-				box3Due = Math.max(0, invested - Math.max(0, exempt - cash)) * deemed * 0.36;
+				box3Due = Math.max(0, invested - Math.max(0, exempt - cash)) * deemed * facts.box3Rate;
 			}
 		}
 		const total = cash + invested;
-		const elapsed = (index + 1) / 12;
-		const real = total / Math.pow(1 + pct(params.inflationPercent), elapsed);
+		const real = total / deflator;
+		recentRealIncome.push(income / deflator);
+		if (recentRealIncome.length > 12) recentRealIncome.shift();
 		points.push({ date, cash, invested, total, real });
 		row.income += income;
 		row.spending += spending + tax;
@@ -466,6 +669,9 @@ export function runScenario(inputs: ScenarioInputs, params: ScenarioParams): Sce
 		row.total = total;
 		row.invested = invested;
 		row.real = real;
+		row.grossMonthly = employed ? gross : 0;
+		row.baseReal = retired ? 0 : (gross * 12) / deflator / 100;
+		row.role = retired ? 'Retired' : roleFor(row.baseReal);
 		for (const milestone of milestones)
 			if (milestone.date === null && milestone.test()) milestone.date = first.slice(0, 7);
 	}
@@ -492,9 +698,14 @@ export function scenarioColor(id: ScenarioId) {
 }
 
 /** Total, spendable and invested lines in the shape `wealthTimeline` expects for a projection. */
-export function scenarioProjection(result: ScenarioResult): ChartSeries[] {
+export function scenarioProjection(result: ScenarioResult, todaysEuros = false): ChartSeries[] {
 	const line = (key: 'total' | 'cash' | 'invested') =>
-		result.points.map((point) => ({ date: point.date, value: Math.round(point[key]) }));
+		result.points.map((point) => ({
+			date: point.date,
+			value: Math.round(
+				todaysEuros && point.total ? point[key] * (point.real / point.total) : point[key]
+			)
+		}));
 	return [
 		{ label: 'Total wealth', color: '#0070f3', points: line('total'), emphasis: true },
 		{ label: 'Spendable', color: '#46a758', points: line('cash') },
@@ -506,7 +717,8 @@ export function scenarioProjection(result: ScenarioResult): ChartSeries[] {
 export function scenarioCompareLines(
 	results: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioResult>,
 	params: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams>,
-	today: string
+	today: string,
+	todaysEuros = false
 ): ChartSeries[] {
 	return scenarioIds.map((id) => ({
 		label: params[id].label,
@@ -514,6 +726,9 @@ export function scenarioCompareLines(
 		dashedFrom: today,
 		points: results[id].points
 			.filter((point) => point.date > today)
-			.map((point) => ({ date: point.date, value: Math.round(point.total) }))
+			.map((point) => ({
+				date: point.date,
+				value: Math.round(todaysEuros ? point.real : point.total)
+			}))
 	}));
 }
diff --git a/src/routes/trackers/money/+page.svelte b/src/routes/trackers/money/+page.svelte
index a581fcc..d17f02c 100644
--- a/src/routes/trackers/money/+page.svelte
+++ b/src/routes/trackers/money/+page.svelte
@@ -41,7 +41,12 @@
 		accountBalances,
 		accountColor,
 		clipSeries,
+		type ForecastHorizon,
+		forecastHorizons,
+		gridFor,
 		type HistoryRange,
+		horizonEnd,
+		parseHorizon,
 		historyStart,
 		parseHistoryRange,
 		monthlyCents,
@@ -140,6 +145,27 @@
 			)
 			.reduce((sum, item) => sum + monthlyCents(item.amountCents, item.cadence), 0)
 	);
+	// History range sets how far back the chart starts, the forecast horizon how far ahead it
+	// projects; both live in the URL (?range=, ?horizon=).
+	let horizon = $state<ForecastHorizon>(parseHorizon(page.url.searchParams.get('horizon')));
+	let forecastEnd = $derived(horizonEnd(horizon, data.today));
+	function setHorizon(value: string) {
+		horizon = parseHorizon(value);
+		const url = new URL(window.location.href);
+		url.searchParams.set('horizon', horizon);
+		replaceState(url, page.state);
+	}
+	// Nominal or today's euros (?euros=today): far-out nominal numbers mostly measure inflation.
+	let todaysEuros = $state(page.url.searchParams.get('euros') === 'today');
+	function setEuros(value: string) {
+		todaysEuros = value === 'today';
+		const url = new URL(window.location.href);
+		if (todaysEuros) url.searchParams.set('euros', 'today');
+		else url.searchParams.delete('euros');
+		replaceState(url, page.state);
+	}
+	const horizonLabel = (value: ForecastHorizon) =>
+		value === '1y' ? '1 year' : `${Number.parseInt(value)} years`;
 	let projection = $derived(
 		wealthProjection(
 			data.accounts,
@@ -148,7 +174,8 @@
 			data.forecasts,
 			data.recurring,
 			data.projectionSettings,
-			data.today
+			data.today,
+			forecastEnd
 		)
 	);
 	type ProjectionView = ScenarioId | 'compare' | 'simple';
@@ -184,7 +211,7 @@
 			forecasts: data.forecasts,
 			futureTransactions,
 			today: data.today,
-			endDate: data.projectionSettings?.endDate
+			endDate: forecastEnd
 		})
 	);
 	let scenarioResults = $derived(
@@ -195,8 +222,30 @@
 	let selectedScenario = $derived<ScenarioId>(
 		projectionView === 'compare' || projectionView === 'simple' ? 'realistic' : projectionView
 	);
+	/** The simple projection in today's euros, using the realistic scenario's inflation. */
+	function deflated(series: typeof projection) {
+		const yearly = 1 + scenarioParams.realistic.inflationPercent / 100;
+		const start = Date.parse(`${data.today}T12:00:00Z`);
+		return series.map((line) => ({
+			...line,
+			points: line.points.map((point) => ({
+				...point,
+				value: Math.round(
+					point.value /
+						Math.pow(
+							yearly,
+							(Date.parse(`${point.date}T12:00:00Z`) - start) / (365.25 * 86_400_000)
+						)
+				)
+			}))
+		}));
+	}
 	let activeProjection = $derived(
-		projectionView === 'simple' ? projection : scenarioProjection(scenarioResults[selectedScenario])
+		projectionView === 'simple'
+			? todaysEuros
+				? deflated(projection)
+				: projection
+			: scenarioProjection(scenarioResults[selectedScenario], todaysEuros)
 	);
 	const timelineViews: { id: TimelineView; label: string }[] = [
 		{ id: 'total', label: 'Total' },
@@ -223,7 +272,7 @@
 			projectionView === 'compare' && timelineView === 'total'
 				? [
 						...wealthTimeline(data.accounts, actualTransactions, [], data.today, 'total'),
-						...scenarioCompareLines(scenarioResults, scenarioParams, data.today)
+						...scenarioCompareLines(scenarioResults, scenarioParams, data.today, todaysEuros)
 					]
 				: wealthTimeline(
 						data.accounts,
@@ -235,6 +284,12 @@
 			historyStart(historyRange, data.today)
 		)
 	);
+	let chartGrid = $derived(
+		gridFor(
+			timeline.flatMap((line) => line.points.map((point) => point.date)).sort()[0],
+			forecastEnd
+		)
+	);
 	let projectionEnd = $derived(activeProjection.map((line) => line.points.at(-1)?.value ?? 0));
 	let wishTiers = $derived(
 		[5, 4, 3, 2, 1].map((tier) => ({
@@ -386,7 +441,9 @@
 					activeProjection[0].points.at(-1)?.date ?? data.today
 				)}{projectionView === 'simple'
 					? ''
-					: ` · ${scenarioParams[selectedScenario].label.toLowerCase()}`}
+					: ` · ${scenarioParams[selectedScenario].label.toLowerCase()}`}{todaysEuros
+					? ' · today’s €'
+					: ''}
 			</p>
 			<p class="stat-value">{@render signed(projectionEnd[0])}</p>
 		</div>
@@ -433,12 +490,32 @@
 							>{/each}</Tabs.List
 					></Tabs.Root
 				>
+				<label class="horizon-picker"
+					><span>Forecast</span><NativeSelect
+						value={horizon}
+						onchange={(event) => setHorizon(event.currentTarget.value)}
+						aria-label="Forecast horizon"
+						>{#each forecastHorizons as item (item)}<option value={item}
+								>{horizonLabel(item)}</option
+							>{/each}</NativeSelect
+					></label
+				>
+				<Tabs.Root
+					value={todaysEuros ? 'today' : 'nominal'}
+					onValueChange={setEuros}
+					aria-label="Euros shown"
+					><Tabs.List
+						><Tabs.Trigger value="nominal">Nominal €</Tabs.Trigger><Tabs.Trigger value="today"
+							>Today’s €</Tabs.Trigger
+						></Tabs.List
+					></Tabs.Root
+				>
 			</div>
 			<MoneyChart
 				series={timeline}
 				title="Actual and projected wealth over time"
 				marker={{ date: data.today, label: 'Today' }}
-				grid={historyRange === 'all' ? 'years' : 'months'}
+				grid={chartGrid}
 			/>
 			<div class="projection-totals" aria-label="Projected balances at end of period">
 				<div>
@@ -470,7 +547,9 @@
 					Scenarios start from today’s balances and run monthly on the recurring list, one-off
 					estimates (salary extras such as holiday pay, the 13th month and the bonus are modelled
 					per scenario instead), and the assumptions above. Compare shows all three totals; Simple
-					is the setting-based projection.
+					is the setting-based projection. The history tabs set how far back the chart starts and
+					Forecast how far ahead it runs (1–100 years); Today’s € divides projected values by the
+					scenario’s inflation so long horizons stay comparable.
 				</p>
 			{:else}<p class="muted projection-note">
 					Includes future dated transactions and estimates{data.projectionSettings
@@ -1186,8 +1265,8 @@
 					>
 					<label class="field"
 						>Project through<Input name="endDate" type="date" value={active.endDate ?? ''} /><small
-							>Optional, up to 20 years ahead. By default, ends at the latest future entry, or one
-							year from today.</small
+							>Not used by the chart, which projects as far as the Forecast picker above it (1–100
+							years).</small
 						></label
 					>
 					<label class="field check-field"
diff --git a/src/routes/trackers/money/money-tracker.css b/src/routes/trackers/money/money-tracker.css
index 621434f..bea4f02 100644
--- a/src/routes/trackers/money/money-tracker.css
+++ b/src/routes/trackers/money/money-tracker.css
@@ -634,3 +634,10 @@
 		width: 100%;
 	}
 }
+.money-app .horizon-picker {
+	display: inline-flex;
+	align-items: center;
+	gap: 6px;
+	font-size: 14px;
+	color: var(--site-muted);
+}