Money forecast: calm optimistic start, rising plateau, thin solid projected lines

- Optimistic: no crash or correction through 2031 (5 years from today), earning the
  9.5% average; cycle resumes after (correction 2035, crash 2040). Salary plateau
  grows 2%/yr real so pay never stalls.
- Realistic keeps its single -30% crash in 2029; pessimistic unchanged.
- Projected lines are now thin, slightly lighter solid lines in every view; legend updated.
- Explanation text lists the crash/correction years and recovery time.

src/lib/money-tracker/scenarios.ts

@@ -39,6 +39,11 @@ export type ScenarioParams = {
 	firstCrashYear: number;
 	/** Smaller correction halfway between crashes, percent (0 = none). */
 	correctionPercent: number;
+	/**
+	 * Calm start: no crash or correction from this year through this many years ahead; those
+	 * years earn the plain average return (0 = the crash cycle applies from the start).
+	 */
+	calmYears: number;
 	/** Interest on the cash buffer, percent per year. */
 	cashRatePercent: number;
 	/** Inflation: prices, the salary cap, pension and benefits grow with it; percent. */
@@ -62,6 +67,8 @@ export type ScenarioParams = {
 	hopGapMonths: number;
 	/** Career plateau: base salary cap per year in today's euros (excl. holiday pay). */
 	salaryCapEuros: number;
+	/** Real growth of that plateau per year, percent (0 = flat once reached). */
+	salaryCapGrowthPercent: number;
 	/** Share of the contract's bonus estimate actually paid each August, 0–100. */
 	bonusPercentOfTarget: number;
 	/** Side income, gross today's euros per month, ramping over five years to the end value. */
@@ -97,6 +104,7 @@ export const defaultScenarios: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams> = {
 		crashEveryYears: 8,
 		firstCrashYear: 2027,
 		correctionPercent: -8,
+		calmYears: 0,
 		cashRatePercent: 0,
 		inflationPercent: 2.5,
 		gapMonths: 3,
@@ -110,6 +118,7 @@ export const defaultScenarios: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams> = {
 		hopRaisePercent: 15,
 		hopGapMonths: 3,
 		salaryCapEuros: 75000,
+		salaryCapGrowthPercent: 0,
 		bonusPercentOfTarget: 0,
 		sideStartEuros: 100,
 		sideEndEuros: 100,
@@ -132,6 +141,7 @@ export const defaultScenarios: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams> = {
 		crashEveryYears: 10,
 		firstCrashYear: 2029,
 		correctionPercent: -10,
+		calmYears: 0,
 		cashRatePercent: 1.5,
 		inflationPercent: 2.5,
 		gapMonths: 0,
@@ -145,6 +155,7 @@ export const defaultScenarios: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams> = {
 		hopRaisePercent: 20,
 		hopGapMonths: 0,
 		salaryCapEuros: 95000,
+		salaryCapGrowthPercent: 0,
 		bonusPercentOfTarget: 100,
 		sideStartEuros: 250,
 		sideEndEuros: 500,
@@ -167,6 +178,7 @@ export const defaultScenarios: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams> = {
 		crashEveryYears: 10,
 		firstCrashYear: 2030,
 		correctionPercent: -15,
+		calmYears: 5,
 		cashRatePercent: 1.5,
 		inflationPercent: 2.5,
 		gapMonths: 0,
@@ -180,6 +192,7 @@ export const defaultScenarios: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams> = {
 		hopRaisePercent: 22,
 		hopGapMonths: 0,
 		salaryCapEuros: 150000,
+		salaryCapGrowthPercent: 2,
 		bonusPercentOfTarget: 100,
 		sideStartEuros: 300,
 		sideEndEuros: 2500,
@@ -396,9 +409,11 @@ function monthEnd(first: string) {
 
 /**
  * Years of a crash cycle: a crash in the first year, a correction halfway, and normal years whose
- * return makes the whole cycle average out at the expected return.
+ * return makes the whole cycle average out at the expected return. With `calmYears`, the years
+ * from `startYear` through `startYear + calmYears` have no crash or correction and earn the plain
+ * average return; the cycle keeps its phase after that.
  */
-export function marketReturns(params: ScenarioParams) {
+export function marketReturns(params: ScenarioParams, startYear?: number) {
 	const pct = (value: number) => value / 100;
 	const every = Math.max(2, Math.round(params.crashEveryYears));
 	const crashes = params.crashPercent !== 0;
@@ -410,9 +425,16 @@ export function marketReturns(params: ScenarioParams) {
 	const normal = crashes
 		? Math.pow(Math.pow(1 + pct(params.returnPercent), every) / shocks, 1 / normalYears) - 1
 		: pct(params.returnPercent);
+	const calmUntil =
+		startYear !== undefined && params.calmYears > 0
+			? startYear + Math.round(params.calmYears)
+			: null;
 	return {
 		normal,
+		calmUntil,
 		yearReturn(year: number) {
+			if (calmUntil !== null && year <= calmUntil)
+				return { kind: 'calm' as const, rate: pct(params.returnPercent) };
 			if (!crashes || year < params.firstCrashYear)
 				return { kind: 'normal' as const, rate: normal };
 			const offset = (year - params.firstCrashYear) % every;
@@ -444,7 +466,7 @@ export function runScenario(inputs: ScenarioInputs, params: ScenarioParams): Sce
 	const gapStart = addMonths(facts.contractEnd, 1);
 	const gapEnd = params.gapMonths > 0 ? addMonths(gapStart, params.gapMonths) : gapStart;
 	const retireStart = `${facts.birthYear + Math.round(params.retireAge)}-01-01`;
-	const markets = marketReturns(params);
+	const markets = marketReturns(params, Number(inputs.today.slice(0, 4)));
 	const monthlyInflation = Math.pow(1 + pct(params.inflationPercent), 1 / 12);
 	const isHopYear = (year: number) =>
 		params.hopEveryYears > 0 &&
@@ -589,7 +611,10 @@ export function runScenario(inputs: ScenarioInputs, params: ScenarioParams): Sce
 				!(hopStart && month === 10)
 			)
 				gross *= 1 + pct(params.raisePercent);
-			const cap = ((params.salaryCapEuros * 100) / 12) * deflator;
+			const cap =
+				((params.salaryCapEuros * 100) / 12) *
+				deflator *
+				Math.pow(1 + pct(params.salaryCapGrowthPercent), Math.max(0, index) / 12);
 			if (hopStart && first === hopStart && params.hopGapMonths > 0 && !retired)
 				row.events.push(`Between jobs (${params.hopGapMonths} mo)`);
 			if (hopEnd && first === hopEnd && !retired) {
@@ -727,7 +752,7 @@ export function runScenario(inputs: ScenarioInputs, params: ScenarioParams): Sce
 		// compounding gives the same monthly return.
 		const market = markets.yearReturn(year);
 		const monthRate =
-			market.kind === 'normal'
+			market.kind === 'normal' || market.kind === 'calm'
 				? Math.pow(1 + market.rate, 1 / 12) - 1
 				: month >= 3 && month <= 10
 					? Math.pow(1 + market.rate, 1 / 8) - 1
@@ -848,7 +873,7 @@ export function scenarioProjection(result: ScenarioResult, todaysEuros = false):
 	];
 }
 
-/** One dashed total line per scenario, for comparing them on the wealth chart. */
+/** One projected total line per scenario, for comparing them on the wealth chart. */
 export function scenarioCompareLines(
 	results: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioResult>,
 	params: Record<ScenarioId, ScenarioParams>,
@@ -858,7 +883,7 @@ export function scenarioCompareLines(
 	return scenarioIds.map((id) => ({
 		label: params[id].label,
 		color: scenarioColors[id],
-		dashedFrom: today,
+		projectedFrom: today,
 		points: results[id].points
 			.filter((point) => point.date > today)
 			.map((point) => ({